Dr. Zvi Shkedi
A detailed analysis of the world population growth yields interesting conclusions regarding the time when mankind first appeared on earth. The world population in year 1000 AD was 310 million. In year 1750 AD the world population was 791 million. The population growth from year 1000 to year 1750 gives us an average growth rate of 0.125% per year. This is a very slow average rate which takes into account all the effects of wars, famine, plagues, natural catastrophes, and negative growth periods, before the onset of modern technology and medicine. When we extrapolate this slow average growth rate backwards, we find that we have to start with 2 people in year 14100 BCE, to achieve the known world population numbers. [The mathematical equation is: population = (starting-no.-of-people) * 1.00125 ^ (total-no.-of-years).]
The population density thousands of years ago was so low that competition over food supplies would have a negligible effect on population growth. Living conditions in ancient times could not be much worse than in Africa before the beginning of the 20th century. The average growth rate in Africa from year 1750 to year 1900 was 0.15%. This rate is very close, yet, larger than the 0.125% world growth rate mentioned above. By comparison, during the 210 years that the Jews were enslaved in ancient Egypt, the average growth rate was about 5% per year. In ancient times, when overall population density was lower, the growth rate was much higher than 0.15%, and definitely not lower than 0.12%. This supports the earlier conclusion that mankind could not have appeared on earth earlier than year 14100 BCE. All theories which claim a lower growth rate in ancient times are nothing but baseless speculations.
The known growth rate in Asia alone between the years 1750 and 1900 was 0.42% per year. This rate is very close to the 0.45% growth rate we get if we start with the 8 biblical people who survived the Great Flood in year 2104 BCE and end with 310 million people in year 1000 AD. If we calculate the 0.42% rate backwards, we find that we have to start with 2 people in year 3500 BCE to achieve the world population of 310 million in year 1000 AD.
The higher the growth rate - the shorter is the time required to achieve a known population. Obviously, the growth rate was not constant with time, but, the long-term average could not be less than 0.12%. Using this lower limit, it would be impossible for mankind to have appeared on earth earlier than 14100 BCE. Using the higher known growth rate in Asia shows that mankind appeared on earth around year 3500 BCE. So, we conclude that mankind appeared on earth somewhere between 3500 BCE and 14100 BCE. This time range is three orders of magnitude shorter than the speculative evolutionists' estimates of millions of years ago. According to the Bible, mankind appeared on earth in year 3760 BCE. This biblical date is well within the date range calculated based on the known population growth rates, and is very close to the calculated date based on the known population growth rate in Asia.
These growth numbers may not be exactly equal to the unknown numbers in ancient times. These calculations also include calculations which require caution when interpreting the results. However, they are infinitely better than the imaginative speculations by evolution biologists who claim that mankind appeared on earth millions of years ago. Did any of those biologists ever disclose a better, more accurate, mathematical model to get their "millions of years" estimate? Pulling a rabbit out of an empty hat is much easier to believe than the "millions of years" estimate. Did any of those biologists ever calculate the possible consequences of their "millions of years" estimate? Let's see what happens if we assume that mankind appeared on earth not millions of years ago but only 40,000 years ago.
At the lower-limit growth rate of 0.12% per year, if we were to start with 2 people 40,000 years ago, the current world population would grow to 1.3*10^21 which is 1,300,000,000 trillion people. That's a population density of 850,000 people per square foot of earth land area. The people on earth would have to pile up 850,000 layers high to contain all of them. Even the wildest science-fiction writers could not dream of such a large number. Even if they all perished, where are their bones, 850,000 layers high? Can anyone imagine how many more bones we would find if mankind appeared on earth millions of years ago?
150 years ago, when the imaginative theories about the beginning of mankind became popular, scientists did not have computers to calculate the consequences of these speculations. 150 years ago, scientists could also not publish their theories in the journal which is available today - "Speculations in Science and Technology".
Evolution biologists need an old universe. Little do they know that for evolution to make any sense the earth would have to be many trillions of years old. Evolutionists claim that it would take millions of years for "evolutionary mutations" to occur and spread into the population. So, since "evolution is fact", as they claim, it proves that the universe is old. In the second step of this deceptive cyclical logic we find in biology texts statements like: "Humans and monkeys evolved from a common ancestor millions of years ago", as if this was a well established scientific fact. To complete the cycle of this logical fallacy, we find statements like: "The common ancestry of humans and monkeys proves that mankind appeared on earth millions of years ago."
Today, unfortunately, the speculations about the age of the universe and the beginning of life have turned into an anti-religious political agenda (in the USA) which has nothing to do with science. If not for the anti-religious motivation, these speculations would have been long forgotten, together with so many other imaginative theories gone with the wind, like the aether, the flat earth, alchemy, and spontaneous generation of life.
As we can see from the examples above, dating early history is not a very promising branch of science. Fiction and dogma - maybe, but, science - no.
- Shkedi, Z. "The Probability of Evolution by Mutations "